- Next Year the U.S. Economy Growth Gradually Improving
Next Year the U.S. Economy Growth Gradually Improving
- By Lanbo Jiang
- Published 02/28/2012
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Goldman Sachs Asset Management Jim O Neill, Chairman's report to clients, will in 2011 called "In the United States" and said U.S. economic growth next year in favor of the 3.4% expected.
However, the growing debt crisis as the U.S. economy next year, a potential problem. According to the U.S. debt clock site, the scale of the current U.S. debt has more than 13.9 trillion U.S. dollars, the debt-GDP accounts for more than 94.9%. The newly exacerbated by the tax cuts the federal deficit next year. U.S. Congressional Budget Office said the tax cuts will lead to an increase of nearly 900 billion U.S. dollars budget deficit.
Tax cut bill passed, Moody's warned investors worried about come true. Rating agency Moody's said that once the tax cut bill was passed, it may cut the U.S. sovereign rating of AAA.
However, O'Neill said: "Despite the current financial situation of the United States and Portugal, almost, but not facing the same dilemma, which is likely to be investors in the United States from the governance structure and confidence in economic leadership."
Former Embassy Counsellor, Foreign Trade University, currently Director of the Centre of Sino-US economic and trade He Weiwen, told this reporter: "Next year, good for U.S. economic fundamentals, suggesting that its solvency well, it is unlikely to downgrade."
Strong consumption growth is expected to boost year-end
Economic growth is expected to increase largely due to a rebound in U.S. consumer Christmas.
According to IBM's retail sales tracking 500 Core-metrics and Statistics, compared with last year, the number of online shopping before Christmas rose 23.5%. In the December 18 "Super Saturday", online retail spending increased by 18% year on year, the average amount per order increased by 4% to $ 169.
United States, "National Retail Federation," that the Christmas holiday sales will reach 451.5 billion U.S. dollars, increasing 3.3% over last year, higher than the 10 years the average increase of 2.5%. Will be the largest since 2006, annual growth, but also from a record 452.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2007 the highest since record sales.
"U.S. consumers in 2010 to provide a strong end." Standard Chartered Bank economist David Semmens, told reporters, "It's early 2011 economic growth to provide a much-needed thrust."
There are other good data to support. December 23, the U.S. Commerce Department said November retail sales of U.S. higher the fifth consecutive month, reaching 378.7 billion U.S. dollars,
In this case, the major agencies have raised expectations the U.S. economy next year. Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs (Jan Hatzius) expects U.S. economic growth next year, 3.4%; Moody's will be expected to increase to 4%. Previously, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Moody's predicted increase of 2.7% Dengjun.
But O'Neill stressed that the U.S. economy next year will not return to normal before the crisis: "2011 would be the start of the new period, GDP growth will be strong to stimulate exports and investment."
General situation of the United States next year, slightly better than this year. Although housing investment remains sluggish, but the industry and equipment investment is increasing.
UBS reported that the private sector, U.S. economic growth next year will have a greater role.
But the debt crisis or solvency firm is
But the debt crisis of the economic recovery in the United States worry.
According to statistics, the proportion of U.S. debts to GDP, 94.9%, while the fiscal deficit in recent months, the proportion of GDP, 10%, both at historic highs.
Before and after the announcement of tax cuts, the U.S. benchmark interest rate ten-year bond rose to 4.16% from 3.21%, the yield increased to 3.5%, which reached the highest in 6 months. This is exacerbated in the future to further expand the scale of U.S. debt concerns, there have been economists criticized the short-term fiscal stimulus endless trouble.
With the QE2 to implement, at least in the first half of next year, the United States will continue to change the current situation of public debt, which means that the proportion of the debt-GDP is likely to exceed 100%.
In addition, the local government is more stretched because of debt problems. Wall Street analysts Mailer Judith Whitney, said more than 100 U.S. cities may be declared bankrupt in the next year. This means that most municipal bonds face the risk of default.
Although the debt problem is serious, but good for the U.S. economic fundamentals, investors are not worried about its solvency.
O'Neill pointed out that a lot of evidence that it is better to keep the U.S. economy pushed bond yields.
The recent rise in bond yields from the low, long term U.S. bond yields is not a huge change in the bond market will not be a big impact. The current rise in yields on the U.S. economy out of the confidence of investors.
Although the debt growth will offset part of the fundamentals of economic growth, but will not cause short-term economic downturn, the two will not closely linked.
Destined to the United States is gradually expanding to the good economy and the debt balance.